Atlas of the Present Atlas · v0.1

As of 12 September 2026

Dossier 07

Batteries

v1.3-draft · unchecked

1. As of

Date
Version
v1.3-draft
Author / model
Atlas generator
Reviewer
unchecked (Josef)

2. In one sentence

Lithium-ion is deployed practice at TWh scale: EV batteries 1.2 TWh in 2025, LFP over 55%, China over 80%; commercial cells ≥270 Wh/kg / ≥650 Wh/L (Frith 2023, E2) at cell price $101 kWh⁻¹ (2021) — cell ≠ IEA pack; solid-state remains a challenge (Janek & Zeier 2023, E2); sodium remains a claim; 500 Wh/kg plus 1,000 cycles is not an EV product.

Established now · E1 / E2

3. What works today

Li-ion is deployed practice

  1. E1

    Energy-sector battery demand (EV + storage) 1 TWh in 2024. EV battery demand >950 GWh, +25% vs. 2023. Cars >85% of EV battery demand. An average week in 2024 > entire annual demand a decade earlier.

    IEA GEO 2025. Electric vehicle batteries — Global EV Outlook 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2025/electric-vehicle-batteries. As of 2025. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Official report.
  2. E1

    2023: energy sector >90% of annual Li-ion demand (2016: 50%). Energy-sector stock >2,400 GWh. Storage additions 2023: 42 GW, doubled. Pack prices from ~1,400 USD/kWh (2010) to <140 USD/kWh (2023); ~90% decline.

    IEA Exec 2024. Batteries and Secure Energy Transitions — Executive Summary. https://www.iea.org/reports/batteries-and-secure-energy-transitions/executive-summary. As of 2024-04-25. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Official report.IEA Status. Status of battery demand and supply. https://www.iea.org/reports/batteries-and-secure-energy-transitions/status-of-battery-demand-and-supply. As of 2024-04. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Official report.
  3. E2

    2025 storage additions 108 GW, +40%; LFP ~90% of storage deployments (five years earlier <50%). Li-ion market >150 billion USD. LFP >50% of EV batteries and >90% of BESS. China fabricates >80% of all batteries. 2025 figures marked as estimates.

    IEA GER 2026. Technology: Battery storage — Global Energy Review 2026. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2026/technology-battery-storage. As of 2026. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Official report.IEA Commentary 2026. Global battery markets are growing strongly — and so are the supply risks. https://www.iea.org/commentaries/global-battery-markets-are-growing-strongly-and-so-are-the-supply-risks. As of 2026-02-13. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Official commentary.
  4. E1

    Pack prices −20% in 2024. LFP ~30% cheaper per kWh than NMC (2024); LFP pack ED ~1/5 lower gravimetrically. Global cell capacity >3 TWh 2024, three times EV+storage demand. ~85% of capacity in China.

    IEA GEO 2025. Electric vehicle batteries — Global EV Outlook 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2025/electric-vehicle-batteries. As of 2025. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Official report.
  5. E2

    CATL 2025 (news on the annual report): shipments 661 GWh; manufacturing capacity 772 GWh; EV market share 39.2% (SNE). HKEX PDF not in full text.

    CATL AR news. CATL Releases 2025 Annual Report. https://www.catl.com/en/news/6773.html. As of 2026-03-10. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Company report.
  6. E2

    IEA GEO 2026 (EV-batteries chapter, opened): EV battery deployment 1.2 TWh in 2025, up almost 30% vs 2024, more than 7× 2020. EVs more than 70% of total battery deployment in 2025 (almost 80% in 2024). Light-duty more than 85%; trucks about 8% (under 5% in 2024). Regional: China 60%, EU almost 15%, US 10% (stagnant), other EMDEs 6%. LFP over 55% of EV batteries in 2025 (almost 50% in 2024). Nameplate manufacturing over 4 TWh by end-2025, up about 30% vs 2024; China over 80% of capacity and of output. Pack prices minus 8% in 2025 (IEA analysis on BNEF data; BNEF not opened independently). 2025 figures in the IEA text are a reporting year, not a live count.

    IEA GEO 2026. Electric vehicle batteries — Global EV Outlook 2026. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2026/electric-vehicle-batteries. As of 2026. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Official report.

Intercalation limits specific energy

  1. E1

    Graphite anode plus intercalation cathode bounds the cell. Baseline Li||NMC622 pouch ~350 Wh/kg. >500 Wh/kg needs a hypothetical cathode >250 mAh g⁻¹ plus >50% cut in inactive mass and N/P → 1. Lean electrolyte 25→3 g Ah⁻¹: cycle life ~10 cycles. 50 µm Li despite flooded electrolyte: <20 cycles. Coin-cell literature ≪50 Wh/kg.

    Liu et al. Pathways for practical high-energy long-cycling lithium metal batteries. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1498872. As of 2019-02-25. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Paper (Nature Energy).
  2. E2

    Frith/Lacey/Ulissi (Nat. Commun. perspective 2023, OA PDF): mass-produced commercial cells from Sony 1991 120 Wh kg⁻¹ / 264 Wh L⁻¹ to ≥270 Wh kg⁻¹ / ≥650 Wh L⁻¹. Cell prices down 98% from ca. $5,000 kWh⁻¹ (1991) to $101 kWh⁻¹ (2021, Fig. 1). Cell ≠ IEA pack price (GEO 2026 minus 8% in 2025). Inactive components can be ≥50 wt% of the cell.

    Frith, Lacey, Ulissi. A non-academic perspective on the future of lithium-based batteries. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-35933-2.pdf. As of 2023-01-26. Checked 2026-09-01. Type: Paper (Nature Communications perspective, OA).
  3. E2

    LFP cell-to-pack (CTP) in the same paper: cell ca. 160 Wh kg⁻¹ / 330 Wh L⁻¹ → pack ca. 135 Wh kg⁻¹ / 210 Wh L⁻¹; 64% volumetric packing efficiency vs 35–40% standard pack. High-Ni SOTA cells >270 Wh kg⁻¹. NMC811 6% Co by mass; raw-material cost example Jan 2022 $54 vs $135 kWh⁻¹ (NMC811 vs LCO, excluding processing).

    Frith, Lacey, Ulissi. A non-academic perspective on the future of lithium-based batteries. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-35933-2.pdf. As of 2023-01-26. Checked 2026-09-01. Type: Paper (Nature Communications perspective, OA).
  4. E2

    DOE 2020: conventional graphite cells ~220 Wh/kg. Battery500: pouch from 300 Wh/kg / ~10 cycles to 350 Wh/kg / >350 cycles. Path to 500 Wh/kg as research, not a product. Later AMR PDFs not opened.

    DOE Battery500. Battery500: Progress Update. https://www.energy.gov/cmei/articles/battery500-progress-update. As of 2020-05-19. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Official program note.
  5. E2

    CATL Wu Kai, 2026-04-21: “LFP is nearing its theoretical energy density limit.” Hence roadmap more extreme fast-charge than further ED. Vendor statement; no independent LFP theory calculation opened here.

    CATL Super Tech Day. CATL Unveils Six Major Innovations. https://www.catl.com/en/news/6811.html. As of 2026-04-21. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Company report.

Solid-state: remaining challenges (Janek & Zeier)

  1. E2

    Janek & Zeier (Nat. Energy review 2023, JuSER OA revised MS): four remaining SSB challenges — (1) composite-cathode transport/chemomechanics, stack pressure ideally <0.1 MPa (a few MPa may be acceptable); (2) anode+protection: ultimate proof of long-term large-area Li metal still missing; (3) economics: SE Li inventory ~25% of Li in the cathode composite / ~40% of cell Li incl. separator; (4) long-term interfaces / safety not unequivocally proven (Li₆PS₅Cl–NCM runaway >150 °C).

    Janek & Zeier. Challenges in speeding up solid-state battery development. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-023-01208-9. As of 2023-02-23 (Nat. Energy 8, 230–240); JuSER OA revised MS. Checked 2026-09-06. Type: Paper (Nature Energy review; JuSER OA PDF).
  2. E2

    Authors leave commercial success open between niche and mass market; Li-based SSBs and metal anodes “may not be the ultimate solution.” Review statement 2023 — not evidence of mass-market automotive SSBs.

    Janek & Zeier. Challenges in speeding up solid-state battery development. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-023-01208-9. As of 2023-02-23 (Nat. Energy 8, 230–240); JuSER OA revised MS. Checked 2026-09-06. Type: Paper (Nature Energy review; JuSER OA PDF).

Claimed · E3

4. What is claimed, not shown

IEA scenarios, sodium, solid-state, CATL roadmap

  1. E2

    NZE: storage 6× to 1,500 GW by 2030; batteries 90% of the increment, 14× to 1,200 GW. Na-ion: <10% of EV batteries by 2030. Solid-state “on track to be commercially available” beyond 2030. E2 for the scenario as IEA text; E3 as a world forecast.

    IEA Exec 2024. Batteries and Secure Energy Transitions — Executive Summary. https://www.iea.org/reports/batteries-and-secure-energy-transitions/executive-summary. As of 2024-04-25. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Official report.IEA Outlook. Outlook for battery demand and supply. https://www.iea.org/reports/batteries-and-secure-energy-transitions/outlook-for-battery-demand-and-supply. As of 2024-04. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Official report.
  2. E3

    CATL Naxtra: 175 Wh/kg, >10,000 cycles, −40 °C (vendor). CHANGAN vehicle market start mid-2026. TENER Sodium: 1 GWh shipments expected by end-2026. No independent cell test, no Wh basis (cell vs. pack) given.

    CATL Naxtra. Naxtra Battery Breakthrough & Dual-Power Architecture. https://www.catl.com/en/news/6401.html. As of 2025-04-21. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Company report.CATL CHANGAN. CATL and CHANGAN Launch World’s First Mass-Production Sodium-Ion Passenger Vehicle. https://www.catl.com/en/news/6720.html. As of 2026-02-05. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Company report.CATL Super Tech Day. CATL Unveils Six Major Innovations. https://www.catl.com/en/news/6811.html. As of 2026-04-21. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Company report.CATL TENER. CATL Debuts World's First Field-Validated Sodium-Ion BESS. https://www.catl.com/en/news/6861.html. As of 2026-06-22. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Company report.
  3. E2

    QuantumScape QSE-5 B-samples: 21.6 Wh, 844 Wh/L, 301 Wh/kg (C/5, 25 °C). Tests on a limited number of samples. GAAP loss Q3 2024: 119.7 million USD; no product revenue. 10-K risk factors: never before commercialised an automotive-grade Li-metal solid-state cell; yield/safety transfer unsolved. E2 for B-sample existence; E3 for automotive fitness.

    QS Q3 2024. Q3 Fiscal 2024 Letter to Shareholders (EX-99.1). https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1811414/000095017024116656/qs-ex99_1.htm. As of 2024-10-23. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: SEC filing.QS 10-K. Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1811414/000095017025027308/qs-20241231.htm. As of 2024. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: SEC 10-K.
  4. E2

    IEA GEO 2025: solid-state TRL 6 (large pilot). Advantages still need to be demonstrated for packs at scale. First commercial “SSB” could be semi-/quasi-solid. Toyota/BYD plan 2027–2028, limited volumes.

    IEA GEO 2025. Electric vehicle batteries — Global EV Outlook 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2025/electric-vehicle-batteries. As of 2025. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Official report.
  5. E2

    IEA GEO 2026: EV battery deployment almost 3 TWh in 2030 in CPS and STEPS (from 1.2 TWh in 2025); 2035 about 4 TWh (CPS) / almost 5 TWh (STEPS); NZE about 9 TWh in 2035. Sodium-ion: latest cells up to 175 Wh/kg versus LFP 205 and NMC 265; manufacturing capacity just over 1% of Li-ion cells, announced 2030 projects about 7% of committed Li-ion capacity. Solid-state: advantages not yet shown in real-world use; all-SSB at prototype stage. E2 for the IEA text; E3 as a world forecast.

    IEA GEO 2026. Electric vehicle batteries — Global EV Outlook 2026. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2026/electric-vehicle-batteries. As of 2026. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Official report.
  6. E3

    CATL 2026: 3rd-gen Qilin 280 Wh/kg; Qilin Condensed 350 Wh/kg; aviation line 500 Wh/kg maiden flight (vendor). Shenxing peak 15C, 10–80% in 3 min 44 s. One company event, no independent pack test.

    CATL Super Tech Day. CATL Unveils Six Major Innovations. https://www.catl.com/en/news/6811.html. As of 2026-04-21. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Company report.

Constrained · Limit

5. Bottleneck and limit

What roadmaps do not show

  1. E1

    500 Wh/kg + 1,000 cycles + automotive: Liu shows the gap (lean Li dies fast). Battery500 2020: 350 Wh/kg / >350 cycles. QS B-sample 301 Wh/kg, yield unsolved. CATL 500 Wh/kg aviation = vendor flight.

    Liu et al. Pathways for practical high-energy long-cycling lithium metal batteries. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1498872. As of 2019-02-25. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Paper (Nature Energy).DOE Battery500. Battery500: Progress Update. https://www.energy.gov/cmei/articles/battery500-progress-update. As of 2020-05-19. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Official program note.QS Q3 2024. Q3 Fiscal 2024 Letter to Shareholders (EX-99.1). https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1811414/000095017024116656/qs-ex99_1.htm. As of 2024-10-23. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: SEC filing.
  2. E2

    Na-ion as LFP replacement: IEA GEO 2025 <10% of EVs by 2030 NZE. GEO 2026: cells up to 175 Wh/kg versus LFP 205 / NMC 265; Na manufacturing just over 1% of Li-ion capacity. Sharma: 160→200 Wh/kg target, complementary where ED does not matter. Almost all Na capacity in China.

    IEA GEO 2025. Electric vehicle batteries — Global EV Outlook 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2025/electric-vehicle-batteries. As of 2025. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Official report.CATL Naxtra. Naxtra Battery Breakthrough & Dual-Power Architecture. https://www.catl.com/en/news/6401.html. As of 2025-04-21. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Company report.Sharma et al. Synergistic Role of Transition Metals and Polyanionic Frameworks in Phosphate-Based Cathode Materials for Sodium-Ion Batteries. https://arxiv.org/html/2504.19299v1. As of 2026-08-24. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Paper (review).IEA GEO 2026. Electric vehicle batteries — Global EV Outlook 2026. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2026/electric-vehicle-batteries. As of 2026. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Official report.
  3. E1

    Fabrication outside China: GEO 2025 3 TWh capacity vs. ~1 TWh demand. GEO 2026: nameplate over 4 TWh by end-2025; China still over 80% of capacity and output. EU/US costs up to 50% higher (without public support).

    IEA GEO 2025. Electric vehicle batteries — Global EV Outlook 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2025/electric-vehicle-batteries. As of 2025. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Official report.IEA Commentary 2026. Global battery markets are growing strongly — and so are the supply risks. https://www.iea.org/commentaries/global-battery-markets-are-growing-strongly-and-so-are-the-supply-risks. As of 2026-02-13. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Official commentary.IEA GEO 2026. Electric vehicle batteries — Global EV Outlook 2026. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2026/electric-vehicle-batteries. As of 2026. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Official report.
  4. E2

    Recycling as mineral buffer: IEA GEO 2025 ~a decade. GEO 2026: recycling today mainly production scrap; EoL batteries take the lead only in the mid-2030s; structural lag about 15 years. China over 85% of recycling capacity.

    IEA GEO 2025. Electric vehicle batteries — Global EV Outlook 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2025/electric-vehicle-batteries. As of 2025. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Official report.DOE Blueprint. National Blueprint for Lithium Batteries 2021–2030. https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2021-06/FCAB%20National%20Blueprint%20Lithium%20Batteries%200621_0_0.pdf. As of 2021-06. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Official blueprint.IEA GEO 2026. Electric vehicle batteries — Global EV Outlook 2026. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2026/electric-vehicle-batteries. As of 2026. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Official report.
  5. E1

    Long-duration storage: deployments ~2 h, rising ≥4 h. IEA: batteries good for 1–8 h. UPS (datacenters) 45 GW 2025 = short-time bridge, not grid shifting.

    IEA GER 2026. Technology: Battery storage — Global Energy Review 2026. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2026/technology-battery-storage. As of 2026. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Official report.IEA GEO 2025. Electric vehicle batteries — Global EV Outlook 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2025/electric-vehicle-batteries. As of 2025. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Official report.
  6. E2

    “Solid-state” semantics: IEA covers fully-solid to quasi-solid. QS: inorganic ceramic + organic liquid catholyte in current prototypes.

    IEA GEO 2025. Electric vehicle batteries — Global EV Outlook 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2025/electric-vehicle-batteries. As of 2025. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Official report.QS 10-K. Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1811414/000095017025027308/qs-20241231.htm. As of 2024. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: SEC 10-K.
  7. E2

    Frith Table 1 (illustrative, one 78 Ah ID.3 pouch vs 2032 Li-metal coin): N/P >10 vs 1.04; electrolyte »30 vs 1 g Ah⁻¹; pos. areal «2 vs 5.02 mAh cm⁻². Lab coin ≠ automotive cell. First commercial SSB “expected” ≥350 Wh kg⁻¹ / ≥900 Wh L⁻¹ — target language, not a measured EV product. Authors: no off-the-shelf EV ASSB; no purely solid polymer at ~25 °C at TRL 5 (as of the paper).

    Frith, Lacey, Ulissi. A non-academic perspective on the future of lithium-based batteries. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-35933-2.pdf. As of 2023-01-26. Checked 2026-09-01. Type: Paper (Nature Communications perspective, OA).
  8. E2

    Betz theoretical cell energies in Janek & Zeier (LIB NCA/graphite 265 Wh kg⁻¹ / 635 Wh L⁻¹ vs SSB NCA/Li theoretical 393 / 1143) must not be mixed with Frith cell Wh or IEA pack Wh — review citation ≠ measured EV pack.

    Janek & Zeier. Challenges in speeding up solid-state battery development. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-023-01208-9. As of 2023-02-23 (Nat. Energy 8, 230–240); JuSER OA revised MS. Checked 2026-09-06. Type: Paper (Nature Energy review; JuSER OA PDF).Frith, Lacey, Ulissi. A non-academic perspective on the future of lithium-based batteries. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-35933-2.pdf. As of 2023-01-26. Checked 2026-09-01. Type: Paper (Nature Communications perspective, OA).

6. Actors and incentives

Who fabricates, who projects, who risks

  1. E1

    IEA measures demand, prices, chemistry shares, and China concentration (GEO 2025 and GEO 2026); NZE is a policy path. Frith/Lacey/Ulissi (industry perspective 2023) measure pack vs cell on published specs.

    IEA GEO 2025. Electric vehicle batteries — Global EV Outlook 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2025/electric-vehicle-batteries. As of 2025. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Official report.IEA Commentary 2026. Global battery markets are growing strongly — and so are the supply risks. https://www.iea.org/commentaries/global-battery-markets-are-growing-strongly-and-so-are-the-supply-risks. As of 2026-02-13. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Official commentary.IEA GEO 2026. Electric vehicle batteries — Global EV Outlook 2026. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2026/electric-vehicle-batteries. As of 2026. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Official report.
  2. E2

    CATL is the volume leader (vendor + SNE) and the source of the Na-ion and 350 Wh/kg claims.

    CATL AR news. CATL Releases 2025 Annual Report. https://www.catl.com/en/news/6773.html. As of 2026-03-10. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Company report.CATL Super Tech Day. CATL Unveils Six Major Innovations. https://www.catl.com/en/news/6811.html. As of 2026-04-21. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Company report.
  3. E2

    QuantumScape SEC: the hardest primary source against its own roadmap is the risk factors.

    QS Q3 2024. Q3 Fiscal 2024 Letter to Shareholders (EX-99.1). https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1811414/000095017024116656/qs-ex99_1.htm. As of 2024-10-23. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: SEC filing.QS 10-K. Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1811414/000095017025027308/qs-20241231.htm. As of 2024. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: SEC 10-K.

7. State of the dispute

Incumbent Li-ion vs. new chemistries

  1. E2

    IEA GEO 2025: 2023–24 surge in Li-ion posing a formidable challenge for emerging technologies. GEO 2026: Na-ion 175 Wh/kg versus LFP 205; CATL 175 Wh/kg stands against falling LFP prices (packs minus 8% in 2025).

    IEA GEO 2025. Electric vehicle batteries — Global EV Outlook 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2025/electric-vehicle-batteries. As of 2025. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Official report.CATL Naxtra. Naxtra Battery Breakthrough & Dual-Power Architecture. https://www.catl.com/en/news/6401.html. As of 2025-04-21. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Company report.IEA GEO 2026. Electric vehicle batteries — Global EV Outlook 2026. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2026/electric-vehicle-batteries. As of 2026. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Official report.
  2. E1

    DOE 2030 goal: <60 USD/kWh, 500 Wh/kg. Liu 2019: the same path destroys cycle life under lean/thin-Li.

    Liu et al. Pathways for practical high-energy long-cycling lithium metal batteries. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1498872. As of 2019-02-25. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Paper (Nature Energy).DOE Blueprint. National Blueprint for Lithium Batteries 2021–2030. https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2021-06/FCAB%20National%20Blueprint%20Lithium%20Batteries%200621_0_0.pdf. As of 2021-06. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Official blueprint.

8. Open questions

  1. Janek & Zeier Nature Energy 2023 — opened 2026-09-07 as source 20 (JuSER OA revised MS; checked 2026-09-06). Nature typeset PDF and Betz primary paper separately.
  2. Frith Supplementary Note 1 (Fig. 3 right-panel pack-vs-theory bars as guidelines only).
  3. IEA GEO 2026 full PDF and other chapters (only the EV-batteries HTML opened).
  4. CATL 2025 annual report HKEX PDF — sodium GWh actuals.
  5. QuantumScape 10-K FY2025 + Q2/Q3 2026 letter.
  6. BYD HKEX/SZSE annual report — E0 so far.
  7. Whittingham Chem. Rev. 2014 — ultimate intercalation limits.
  8. Battery500 AMR 2023–2025 — whether 450/500 Wh/kg held.
  9. Independent Naxtra cell test (CATARC).
  10. BNEF Price Survey 2025 as primary.

9. Changes

  • v1.3-draft2026-09-07: Janek & Zeier Nat. Energy 2023 (source 20, E2, JuSER OA) opened — four SSB challenges; niche vs mass market left open; do not mix Betz theoretical Wh with Frith/IEA pack.
  • v1.2-draft2026-09-01: Frith/Lacey/Ulissi Nat. Commun. 2023 (source 19, OA PDF) opened — commercial cells ≥270 Wh kg⁻¹ / ≥650 Wh L⁻¹; cell price $101 kWh⁻¹ 2021; LFP CTP pack 135 Wh kg⁻¹ / 210 Wh L⁻¹ at 64% vol. packing. Cell ≠ IEA pack.
  • v1.1-draft2026-08-28: IEA GEO 2026 EV batteries (1.2 TWh 2025, LFP over 55%, 4 TWh nameplate) folded into layers 1–3.
  • v1.0-draftFirst version from the 2026-08-28 verification log.

10. Sources

No. Source As of Checked Grade
1 International Energy Agency. Electric vehicle batteries — Global EV Outlook 2025. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2025/electric-vehicle-batteries. Type: Official report. E1
2 International Energy Agency. Batteries and Secure Energy Transitions — Executive Summary. https://www.iea.org/reports/batteries-and-secure-energy-transitions/executive-summary. Type: Official report. E1
3 International Energy Agency. Status of battery demand and supply. https://www.iea.org/reports/batteries-and-secure-energy-transitions/status-of-battery-demand-and-supply. Type: Official report. E1
4 International Energy Agency. Outlook for battery demand and supply. https://www.iea.org/reports/batteries-and-secure-energy-transitions/outlook-for-battery-demand-and-supply. Type: Official report. E2
5 International Energy Agency. Technology: Battery storage — Global Energy Review 2026. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2026/technology-battery-storage. Type: Official report. E2
6 Lombardo, T.; Paoli, L.; Fernandez Pales, A.; Gül, T.. Global battery markets are growing strongly — and so are the supply risks. https://www.iea.org/commentaries/global-battery-markets-are-growing-strongly-and-so-are-the-supply-risks. Type: Official commentary. E2
7 U.S. Department of Energy / Federal Consortium for Advanced Batteries. National Blueprint for Lithium Batteries 2021–2030. https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2021-06/FCAB%20National%20Blueprint%20Lithium%20Batteries%200621_0_0.pdf. Type: Official blueprint. E2
8 Liu, J.; Bao, Z.; Cui, Y.; Dufek, E. J.; Goodenough, J. B.; et al.. Pathways for practical high-energy long-cycling lithium metal batteries. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1498872. Type: Paper (Nature Energy). E1
9 U.S. Department of Energy. Battery500: Progress Update. https://www.energy.gov/cmei/articles/battery500-progress-update. Type: Official program note. E2
10 QuantumScape Corporation. Q3 Fiscal 2024 Letter to Shareholders (EX-99.1). https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1811414/000095017024116656/qs-ex99_1.htm. Type: SEC filing. E2
11 QuantumScape Corporation. Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1811414/000095017025027308/qs-20241231.htm. Type: SEC 10-K. E2
12 Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited. Naxtra Battery Breakthrough & Dual-Power Architecture. https://www.catl.com/en/news/6401.html. Type: Company report. E3
13 Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited. CATL and CHANGAN Launch World’s First Mass-Production Sodium-Ion Passenger Vehicle. https://www.catl.com/en/news/6720.html. Type: Company report. E3
14 Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited. CATL Unveils Six Major Innovations. https://www.catl.com/en/news/6811.html. Type: Company report. E2
15 Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited. CATL Debuts World's First Field-Validated Sodium-Ion BESS. https://www.catl.com/en/news/6861.html. Type: Company report. E3
16 Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited. CATL Releases 2025 Annual Report. https://www.catl.com/en/news/6773.html. Type: Company report. E2
17 Sharma, M.; Gulati, R.; Dhaka, R. S.. Synergistic Role of Transition Metals and Polyanionic Frameworks in Phosphate-Based Cathode Materials for Sodium-Ion Batteries. https://arxiv.org/html/2504.19299v1. Type: Paper (review). E2
18 International Energy Agency. Electric vehicle batteries — Global EV Outlook 2026. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2026/electric-vehicle-batteries. Type: Official report. E2
19 Frith, J. T.; Lacey, M. J.; Ulissi, U.. A non-academic perspective on the future of lithium-based batteries. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-35933-2.pdf. Type: Paper (Nature Communications perspective, OA). E2
20 Janek, J.; Zeier, W. G.. Challenges in speeding up solid-state battery development. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-023-01208-9. Type: Paper (Nature Energy review; JuSER OA PDF). E2

11. Uncertainty log

Overall uncertainty of this entry, bound to the verification log of 2026-08-28 plus Frith 2026-09-01 plus Janek & Zeier 2026-09-07. 20 openings. Do not mix Frith cell price $101 kWh⁻¹ (2021) with IEA pack minus 8% (2025); do not mix Betz theoretical Wh (Janek & Zeier) with Frith/IEA pack. Not used as warrant: electrive, BNEF directly, Wikipedia.

  • Established (layer 1): 1 TWh 2024; EV batteries 1.2 TWh 2025; LFP over 55%; China over 80%; Frith commercial cells ≥270 Wh kg⁻¹ and LFP CTP 135 Wh kg⁻¹ pack; lean-Li cycle death; Janek & Zeier four SSB challenges.
  • Claimed (layer 2): NZE 1,200 GW; CATL 175 Wh/kg / 1 GWh sodium; QS 844 Wh/L; CATL 350/500 Wh/kg.
  • Constrained (layer 3): TRL 6 solid-state; Betz theoretical Wh ≠ pack; Na vs. cheap LFP; overcapacity; recycling ~10 years; 500 Wh/kg not an EV product.

Not opened (not a warrant)

  • Janek & Zeier Nature Energy 2023 — opened 2026-09-07 as source 20 (JuSER OA revised MS; checked 2026-09-06). Nature typeset PDF and Betz primary paper unopened.
  • Frith, Lacey, Ulissi Nat. Commun. 2023 — opened 2026-09-01 (source 19, OA PDF). Supplementary Note 1 not as a separate file.
  • CATL 2025 annual report HKEX PDF — 429.
  • IEA GEO 2026 full PDF / other chapters — only the EV-batteries HTML opened.
  • BNEF Price Survey — pack prices only via IEA.
  • Whittingham Chem. Rev. 2014; Battery500 AMR 2023.
  • BYD filings; Toyota/Samsung SDI/Honda solid-state primaries.
  • Betz et al. theoretical Wh cited only via Janek & Zeier — do not mix with Frith/IEA pack.