Atlas of the Present Atlas · v0.1

As of 12 September 2026

Dossier 04

Quantum Computers

v1.5-draft · unchecked

1. As of

Date
Version
v1.5-draft
Author / model
Atlas generator
Reviewer
unchecked (Josef)

2. In one sentence

Programmable qubits and NISQ experiments exist; sampling “supremacy” and Kim “utility” have been caught classically; below-threshold memory is shown, a fault-tolerant algorithm and broken RSA-2048 are not; FIPS 203/204/205, IR 8547 ipd (deprecate after 2030 / disallow after 2035) and EO 14412 (HVA/high-impact PQC deadlines 2030/2031) are opened — federal migration policy, not evidence a CRQC exists today; not RSA broken today.

Established now · E1 / E2

3. What works today

What a quantum computer is — and is not

  1. E1

    A programmable quantum processor prepares, evolves, and measures entangled many-body qubit states. NISQ = noisy intermediate-scale, typically about 50 to a few hundred qubits, not error-corrected. Grover only quadratic; NP-complete not expected to be efficient in BQP (oracle argument via Preskill). “A 100-qubit quantum computer will not change the world right away.”

    Preskill. Quantum Computing in the NISQ era and beyond. https://arxiv.org/html/1801.00862. As of 2018. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Review (Quantum 2, 79).
  2. E2

    IBM 2019: “Quantum computers will never reign ‘supreme’ over classical computers, but will rather work in concert with them.” Sampling supremacy ≠ a useful algorithm.

    IBM Blog. On “quantum supremacy”. https://www.ibm.com/quantum/blog/on-quantum-supremacy. As of 2019-10-22. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Company blog.
  3. E2

    At gate infidelities ~10⁻³, usable gate count before error correction is order ~10³, not 10⁶ (Preskill estimate 2018).

    Preskill. Quantum Computing in the NISQ era and beyond. https://arxiv.org/html/1801.00862. As of 2018. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Review (Quantum 2, 79).

Physical platforms — experiments, not a utility narrative

  1. E1

    Sycamore SI: 54 transmons + 88 couplers, 53 qubits used; 14 lithography layers, Al on Si; idle T1 median 15.54 µs; XEB fidelity around 0.2%. E1 for SI measurements; Nature main text not opened.

    Arute et al. SI. Supplementary information for “Quantum supremacy using a programmable superconducting processor”. https://arxiv.org/html/1910.11333. As of 2019-10. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: SI to Nature paper.
  2. E1

    IBM Eagle / Kim 2023: ibm_kyiv, 127 transmons, median T1 288 µs. Kicked-Ising Trotter up to 60 CNOT layers. The experiment happened. Paper: “we do not aim to implement quantum circuits for problems with proven speed-ups.” E4 for “beyond classical / utility” (Tindall, Begušić).

    Kim et al. Evidence for the utility of quantum computing before fault tolerance. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06096-3. As of 2023. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Paper (Nature OA).
  3. E2

    IonQ Forte: 30 computational ¹⁷¹Yb⁺ ions, cryostat <10 K (not mK). Median 2Q DRB 46.4×10⁻⁴; #AQ 29 with error mitigation. The model overpredicts application fidelity.

    Chen et al. (IonQ). Benchmarking a trapped-ion quantum computer with 30 qubits. https://arxiv.org/html/2308.05071. As of 2023-08. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Paper (vendor+coauthors).
  4. E1

    Bluvstein: up to 280 physical ⁸⁷Rb; 48 logical qubits in [[8,3,2]]; T2 >1 s; 2Q F 99.3–99.5%. Transversal circuits and error detection / postselection. Not a universal FT processor. E3 if sold as a “logical computer” without postselection.

    Bluvstein et al. Logical quantum processor based on reconfigurable atom arrays. https://arxiv.org/html/2312.03982. As of 2023-12. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Paper (Nature 626).
  5. E1

    Superconducting qubits: ≈10 mK dilution refrigerator; Al or Nb on Si or sapphire; transmon EJ/EC ≳ 50, ωq/2π ~ 5 GHz. The 10 mK wall is constitutive for transmons. Ions and neutral atoms have other thermal stacks — not “QC always needs 10 mK”.

    Kjaergaard et al. Superconducting Qubits: Current State of Play. https://arxiv.org/html/1905.13641. As of 2019. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Review.

Error correction: below-threshold memory, not algorithm FT

  1. E1

    Surface code below threshold: Λ = 2.14 ± 0.02; d=7, 105 qubits; ε_7 = 0.143% ± 0.003% per cycle; beyond-breakeven 2.4 ± 0.3×. Cycle 1.1 µs. This is memory, not logical Toffoli computation. Repetition code d=29: correlated bursts ~1×/hour → error floor ~10⁻¹⁰.

    Acharya et al. Quantum error correction below the surface code threshold. https://arxiv.org/html/2408.13687. As of 2024-12-09. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Paper (Nature 638).

PQC standards exist because of a future CRQC threat

  1. E1

    2024-08-13: FIPS 203 (ML-KEM), FIPS 204 (ML-DSA), FIPS 205 (SLH-DSA) approved. Purpose: resist future attacks by quantum computers. E1 for the approval (source 14); not because RSA is broken today. FIPS 203/204/205 bodies opened (sources 21/22/23); IR 8547 ipd migration timelines opened (source 24, E2 draft).

    NIST PQC. Announcing Approval of Three Federal Information Processing Standards (FIPS) for Post-Quantum Cryptography. https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2024/08/announcing-approval-three-federal-information-processing-standards-fips. As of 2024-08-13. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Agency.
  2. E1

    FIPS 203 body (NIST, 2024-08-13): three parameter sets ML-KEM-512 / 768 / 1024 (security categories 1 / 3 / 5). Table 3 sizes (bytes): ML-KEM-512 ek 800, dk 1632, ct 768, shared secret 32; ML-KEM-768 ek 1184, dk 2400, ct 1088, ss 32; ML-KEM-1024 ek 1568, dk 3168, ct 1568, ss 32. NIST recommends ML-KEM-768 as the default. E1 for the opened standard body.

    FIPS 203. Module-Lattice-Based Key-Encapsulation Mechanism Standard (FIPS 203). https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.FIPS.203. As of 2024-08-13. Checked 2026-09-02. Type: FIPS PDF (body opened; also nvlpubs.nist.gov).
  3. E1

    K-PKE is a component of ML-KEM: “The scheme K-PKE is not IND-CCA2-secure and shall not be used as a stand-alone scheme.” Stand-alone K-PKE is not permitted. That does not mean RSA is broken today.

    FIPS 203. Module-Lattice-Based Key-Encapsulation Mechanism Standard (FIPS 203). https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.FIPS.203. As of 2024-08-13. Checked 2026-09-02. Type: FIPS PDF (body opened; also nvlpubs.nist.gov).
  4. E1

    FIPS 204 body (NIST, 2024-08-13): three parameter sets ML-DSA-44 / 65 / 87 (claimed categories 2 / 3 / 5). Table 2 sizes (bytes) private key / public key / signature: ML-DSA-44 2560 / 1312 / 2420; ML-DSA-65 4032 / 1952 / 3309; ML-DSA-87 4896 / 2592 / 4627. Agencies: digital signature key pairs shall not be used for other purposes. E1 for the opened standard body; not RSA broken today.

    FIPS 204. Module-Lattice-Based Digital Signature Standard (FIPS 204). https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.FIPS.204. As of 2024-08-13. Checked 2026-09-03. Type: FIPS PDF (body opened; also nvlpubs.nist.gov).
  5. E1

    FIPS 205 body (NIST, 2024-08-13): Stateless Hash-Based DSA based on SPHINCS+. Table 2: 12 parameter sets (SHA2/SHAKE × 128s/128f/192s/192f/256s/256f). Categories: n=16 → cat 1; n=24 → cat 3; n=32 → cat 5. Example sizes (pk / sig bytes): *-128s 32 / 7856; *-128f 32 / 17088; *-192s 48 / 16224; *-192f 48 / 35664; *-256s 64 / 29792; *-256f 64 / 49856. Private key 4n bytes; public key 2n bytes (when regeneration assurance). WOTS+, XMSS, FORS, hypertree not approved as stand-alone signature schemes; shall not use floating-point arithmetic; key pairs shall not be used for other purposes. E1 for the opened standard body.

    FIPS 205. Stateless Hash-Based Digital Signature Standard (FIPS 205). https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.FIPS.205. As of 2024-08-13. Checked 2026-09-03. Type: FIPS PDF (body opened; also nvlpubs.nist.gov).
  6. E2

    NIST IR 8547 ipd (Moody et al., Nov 2024, DOI 10.6028/NIST.IR.8547.ipd): Initial Public Draft, not a final IR. NSM-10 goal: mitigate as much quantum risk as feasible for federal systems by 2035. Table 2 signatures: ECDSA/RSA 112-bit deprecated after 2030, disallowed after 2035; ≥128-bit ECDSA/EdDSA/RSA disallowed after 2035. Table 4 key-establishment (FF-DH/MQV, EC-DH/MQV, RSA): likewise 112-bit deprecate 2030 / disallow 2035; ≥128 disallow 2035. Status vocabulary: acceptable / deprecated / disallowed / legacy use. Draft ≠ RSA broken today.

    NIST IR 8547 ipd. Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards (NIST IR 8547 Initial Public Draft). https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.IR.8547.ipd. As of 2024-11. Checked 2026-09-04. Type: NIST IR PDF (Initial Public Draft; body opened).
  7. E2

    IR 8547 ipd: NIST intends to keep classical 112-bit signatures/KE deprecated (usable with risk review) rather than immediately disallowed in this window — departure from older SP 800-57 projection (112-bit disallow 2031-01-01). Harvest-now-decrypt-later as urgency rationale. Symmetric ≥128-bit classical treated as ≥ Category 1; some 112-bit symmetric standards disallowed in 2030. E2 because draft.

    NIST IR 8547 ipd. Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards (NIST IR 8547 Initial Public Draft). https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.IR.8547.ipd. As of 2024-11. Checked 2026-09-04. Type: NIST IR PDF (Initial Public Draft; body opened).
  8. E1

    EO 14412 (22 June 2026 signed / 25 June 2026 FR Doc 2026-12909, FR PDF opened): US policy to transition Federal information systems to NIST-approved FIPS for PQC and to assist critical infrastructure.

    EO 14412. Securing the Nation Against Advanced Cryptographic Attacks (Executive Order 14412). https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-06-25/pdf/2026-12909.pdf. As of 2026-06-22 (signed) / 2026-06-25 (FR). Checked 2026-09-05. Type: Presidential Executive Order (FR PDF opened).
  9. E1

    OMB guidance within 90 days: HVAs and high-impact systems (excluding National Security Systems) — PQC for key establishment by 31 Dec 2030; for digital signatures by 31 Dec 2031.

    EO 14412. Securing the Nation Against Advanced Cryptographic Attacks (Executive Order 14412). https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-06-25/pdf/2026-12909.pdf. As of 2026-06-22 (signed) / 2026-06-25 (FR). Checked 2026-09-05. Type: Presidential Executive Order (FR PDF opened).
  10. E1

    NIST pilot: PQC migration on a subset of NIST systems, complete by 31 Dec 2027 (initiate within 180 days).

    EO 14412. Securing the Nation Against Advanced Cryptographic Attacks (Executive Order 14412). https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-06-25/pdf/2026-12909.pdf. As of 2026-06-22 (signed) / 2026-06-25 (FR). Checked 2026-09-05. Type: Presidential Executive Order (FR PDF opened).
  11. E1

    FAR Council: proposed rule within 180 days requiring covered contractors to comply by 31 Dec 2030 with NIST FIPS including PQC algorithms.

    EO 14412. Securing the Nation Against Advanced Cryptographic Attacks (Executive Order 14412). https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-06-25/pdf/2026-12909.pdf. As of 2026-06-22 (signed) / 2026-06-25 (FR). Checked 2026-09-05. Type: Presidential Executive Order (FR PDF opened).
  12. E1

    Definitions: key establishment references FIPS 203 (ML-KEM); digital signature references FIPS 186-5 or successor.

    EO 14412. Securing the Nation Against Advanced Cryptographic Attacks (Executive Order 14412). https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-06-25/pdf/2026-12909.pdf. As of 2026-06-22 (signed) / 2026-06-25 (FR). Checked 2026-09-05. Type: Presidential Executive Order (FR PDF opened).

Claimed · E3

4. What is claimed, not shown

Supremacy/advantage time comparisons and resources

  1. E3

    Google 2019 via IBM blog + SI: Sycamore samples in 200 s a distribution that classically should take 10,000 years. E3 for the classical time comparison (main text not opened); E1 for QPU order of magnitude and XEB~0.2%; E4 as irrefutability (Pan).

    IBM Blog. On “quantum supremacy”. https://www.ibm.com/quantum/blog/on-quantum-supremacy. As of 2019-10-22. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Company blog.Arute et al. SI. Supplementary information for “Quantum supremacy using a programmable superconducting processor”. https://arxiv.org/html/1910.11333. As of 2019-10. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: SI to Nature paper.
  2. E3

    Pednault 2019: Summit estimate 53-qubit/20-cycle all amplitudes 2.55 days. Not executed.

    Pednault et al. Leveraging Secondary Storage to Simulate Deep 54-qubit Sycamore Circuits. https://arxiv.org/html/1910.09534. As of 2019-10. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Paper (IBM).
  3. E3

    Willow blog: RCS under 5 minutes vs. classically 10²⁵ years. The blog explicitly says RCS has no known commercial application. Paper 2408.13687 is the QEC memory paper, not the RCS time comparison.

    Neven / Willow Blog. Meet Willow, our state-of-the-art quantum chip. https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/research/google-willow-quantum-chip/. As of 2024-12-09. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Company blog.
  4. E3

    Gidney 2025: RSA-2048 with <1 million noisy qubits in <1 week under assumptions 0.1% gate error, 1 µs surface-code cycle, nearest-neighbour. Estimate, not a running device. Opened chips: 53 / 105 / 127 / 30 ions / 280 atoms — 3–4 orders of magnitude below.

    Gidney 2025. How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers with less than a million noisy qubits. https://arxiv.org/html/2505.15917. As of 2025-05. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Paper (resource estimate).

Rational Quantum Mechanics (Palmer) — alternative, not established

  1. E2

    Palmer (Emeritus, Oxford, FRS) publishes on 16 March 2026 in PNAS “Rational quantum mechanics: Testing quantum theory with quantum computers”. RaQM discretises complex Hilbert space: the state is defined only in bases where squared amplitudes and complex phases are rational. The Schrödinger equation is left unmodified, including at measurement. √(−1) is defined constructively as a permutation/negation on bit strings; granularity is attributed to gravity. In QM, Hilbert-space dimensions grow exponentially with qubit number; in RaQM, information in the state grows linearly. Abstract (Crossref): Nmax about 200–400 for current qubit technologies, never exceed 1000; algorithms that use all of Hilbert space (e.g. Shor) lose the advantage above this cap; RSA-2048 would not be factored by a quantum computer either. Oxford news: Shor starts to fail at a few hundred error-corrected qubits. E2 for the publication and the stated prediction; not E1 for the physics.

    Palmer PNAS. Rational quantum mechanics: Testing quantum theory with quantum computers. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2523350123. As of 2026-03-16. Checked 2026-08-29. Type: Paper (PNAS; abstract via Crossref, body not opened).Oxford Physics News. Rational quantum mechanics: a new theory of quantum physics. https://www.physics.ox.ac.uk/news/rational-quantum-mechanics-new-theory-quantum-physics. As of 2026-03-16. Checked 2026-08-29. Type: University news (Palmer restatement).
  2. E3

    That QM is wrong, or that the cat and spooky action are artefacts of the continuum (in RaQM cats are not simultaneously alive and dead; Bell: holism, not nonlocality), is Palmer’s reading of an alternative not carried as established. Companion arXiv:2602.16382 (HTML opened) argues the same mysteries number-theoretically and restates the 1000-logical-qubit cap. E3: theory claim, not a measurement.

    Palmer PNAS. Rational quantum mechanics: Testing quantum theory with quantum computers. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2523350123. As of 2026-03-16. Checked 2026-08-29. Type: Paper (PNAS; abstract via Crossref, body not opened).Oxford Physics News. Rational quantum mechanics: a new theory of quantum physics. https://www.physics.ox.ac.uk/news/rational-quantum-mechanics-new-theory-quantum-physics. As of 2026-03-16. Checked 2026-08-29. Type: University news (Palmer restatement).Palmer arXiv 2602.16382. Solving the Mysteries of Quantum Mechanics: Why Nature Abhors a Continuum. https://arxiv.org/html/2602.16382. As of 2026-02-18 (HTML dated 2026-08-24). Checked 2026-08-29. Type: Paper (arXiv HTML, companion).
  3. E2

    IAI News essay 20 May 2026 (Palmer, public lede, then paywall): QM works in experiment but rests on the continuum including irrationals such as √2; RaQM banishes the continuum; mysteries (the cat, spooky action) are claimed to vanish; testable prediction: quantum computers fail beyond 400 qubits. E2 for the essay existing and stating that; IAI is a magazine, not a measurement.

    Palmer IAI. New theory argues quantum physics must abandon irrational numbers and the continuum. https://iai.tv/articles/new-theory-argues-quantum-physics-must-abandon-irrational-numbers-and-the-continuum-auid-3580. As of 2026-05-20. Checked 2026-08-29. Type: Magazine essay (lede; paywall).

Constrained · Limit

5. Bottleneck and limit

Where the narrative fails by design

  1. E1

    EO 14412 is federal policy/migration schedule, not evidence that cryptographically relevant quantum computers exist today; does not supersede IR 8547 ipd as the technical NIST transition report (IR still E2 draft).

    EO 14412. Securing the Nation Against Advanced Cryptographic Attacks (Executive Order 14412). https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-06-25/pdf/2026-12909.pdf. As of 2026-06-22 (signed) / 2026-06-25 (FR). Checked 2026-09-05. Type: Presidential Executive Order (FR PDF opened).NIST IR 8547 ipd. Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards (NIST IR 8547 Initial Public Draft). https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.IR.8547.ipd. As of 2024-11. Checked 2026-09-04. Type: NIST IR PDF (Initial Public Draft; body opened).
  2. E1

    Pan, Chen, Zhang: 10⁶ uncorrelated samples of the 53-qubit/20-cycle Sycamore circuit, fidelity ≈0.0037, in 15 hours on 512 GPUs. First practical classical solve of this sampling task at this fidelity. The 10,000 years were bound to a particular classical method, not a complexity lower bound.

    Pan, Chen, Zhang. Solving the Sampling Problem of the Sycamore Quantum Circuits. https://arxiv.org/html/2111.03011. As of 2021-11. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Paper.
  3. E1

    Gao et al.: XEB is attackable as an advantage certificate. Spoofing reaches 2–12% of experimental XEB values in seconds on a GPU. E4 for “XEB ⇒ quantum advantage”. Willow RCS-10²⁵ uses the same construct; a 2024/25 classical replica at Willow depth is not opened in this log (E0 for the concrete 10²⁵ comparison).

    Gao et al. Limitations of Linear Cross-Entropy as a Measure for Quantum Advantage. https://arxiv.org/html/2112.01657. As of 2021-12. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Paper.
  4. E1

    Tindall: BP-TNS magnetisation ~10⁻¹⁴ on a laptop in <10 s, more accurate than Eagle+ZNE. Begušić: sparse Pauli dynamics 1–2 min/point. The experiment is real (layer 1). The reading “utility / beyond classical before fault tolerance” for this Ising problem is E4.

    Tindall et al. Efficient tensor network simulation of IBM’s Eagle kicked Ising experiment. https://arxiv.org/html/2306.14887. As of 2024. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Paper (PRX Quantum).Begušić, Chan. Fast classical simulation of evidence for the utility of quantum computing before fault tolerance. https://arxiv.org/html/2306.16372. As of 2023-06. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Paper.
  5. E2

    Unstructured search: Grover O(√N), lower bound Ω(√N) in the oracle model. Kjaergaard: NISQ demos mostly proof-of-principle; D-Wave “a definitive demonstration of a quantum enhancement … elusive”. Review as of 2019/20, not a 2026 inventory.

    Preskill. Quantum Computing in the NISQ era and beyond. https://arxiv.org/html/1801.00862. As of 2018. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Review (Quantum 2, 79).Kjaergaard et al. Superconducting Qubits: Current State of Play. https://arxiv.org/html/1905.13641. As of 2019. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Review.

In RaQM quantum advantage is not unlimited — claimed cap, not a measurement

  1. E2

    If qubit-scale quantum advantage is taken as unlimited: RaQM posits a gravity-set information cap (Nmax ≈ 200–400 for current technology, never exceed 1000 perfect qubits; companion: advantage of quantum-Fourier-transform algorithms ceases above 1000 logical qubits). That is Palmer’s published prediction, not a measured wall. No Shor run at 200–400 error-corrected qubits is opened in this log. Not to be equated with “Planck cubes” or an X post.

    Palmer PNAS. Rational quantum mechanics: Testing quantum theory with quantum computers. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2523350123. As of 2026-03-16. Checked 2026-08-29. Type: Paper (PNAS; abstract via Crossref, body not opened).Oxford Physics News. Rational quantum mechanics: a new theory of quantum physics. https://www.physics.ox.ac.uk/news/rational-quantum-mechanics-new-theory-quantum-physics. As of 2026-03-16. Checked 2026-08-29. Type: University news (Palmer restatement).Palmer arXiv 2602.16382. Solving the Mysteries of Quantum Mechanics: Why Nature Abhors a Continuum. https://arxiv.org/html/2602.16382. As of 2026-02-18 (HTML dated 2026-08-24). Checked 2026-08-29. Type: Paper (arXiv HTML, companion).

6. Actors and incentives

Who measures, who standardises

  1. E1

    Google AI Quantum measures Sycamore SI and Willow QEC memory; the RCS-10²⁵ comparison sits in the blog, not the QEC paper.

    Arute et al. SI. Supplementary information for “Quantum supremacy using a programmable superconducting processor”. https://arxiv.org/html/1910.11333. As of 2019-10. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: SI to Nature paper.Acharya et al. Quantum error correction below the surface code threshold. https://arxiv.org/html/2408.13687. As of 2024-12-09. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Paper (Nature 638).Neven / Willow Blog. Meet Willow, our state-of-the-art quantum chip. https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/research/google-willow-quantum-chip/. As of 2024-12-09. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Company blog.
  2. E1

    Pan, Tindall, Begušić, Gao supply the classical counter-evidence to supremacy/utility/XEB.

    Pan, Chen, Zhang. Solving the Sampling Problem of the Sycamore Quantum Circuits. https://arxiv.org/html/2111.03011. As of 2021-11. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Paper.Tindall et al. Efficient tensor network simulation of IBM’s Eagle kicked Ising experiment. https://arxiv.org/html/2306.14887. As of 2024. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Paper (PRX Quantum).Begušić, Chan. Fast classical simulation of evidence for the utility of quantum computing before fault tolerance. https://arxiv.org/html/2306.16372. As of 2023-06. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Paper.Gao et al. Limitations of Linear Cross-Entropy as a Measure for Quantum Advantage. https://arxiv.org/html/2112.01657. As of 2021-12. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Paper.
  3. E1

    NIST releases PQC standards because of future attacks, not because a CRQC exists.

    NIST PQC. Announcing Approval of Three Federal Information Processing Standards (FIPS) for Post-Quantum Cryptography. https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2024/08/announcing-approval-three-federal-information-processing-standards-fips. As of 2024-08-13. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Agency.
  4. E3

    Gidney supplies resource estimates, not experiments.

    Gidney 2025. How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers with less than a million noisy qubits. https://arxiv.org/html/2505.15917. As of 2025-05. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Paper (resource estimate).
  5. E2

    Palmer publishes RaQM as theory (PNAS 16 March 2026 + Oxford news the same day); he does not measure a qubit wall.

    Palmer PNAS. Rational quantum mechanics: Testing quantum theory with quantum computers. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2523350123. As of 2026-03-16. Checked 2026-08-29. Type: Paper (PNAS; abstract via Crossref, body not opened).Oxford Physics News. Rational quantum mechanics: a new theory of quantum physics. https://www.physics.ox.ac.uk/news/rational-quantum-mechanics-new-theory-quantum-physics. As of 2026-03-16. Checked 2026-08-29. Type: University news (Palmer restatement).

7. State of the dispute

Supremacy, utility, memory, crypto — do not collapse them

  1. E1

    Sycamore experiment real; 10,000-year claim E3/E4; Pan practically solved the sampling task.

    Arute et al. SI. Supplementary information for “Quantum supremacy using a programmable superconducting processor”. https://arxiv.org/html/1910.11333. As of 2019-10. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: SI to Nature paper.IBM Blog. On “quantum supremacy”. https://www.ibm.com/quantum/blog/on-quantum-supremacy. As of 2019-10-22. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Company blog.Pan, Chen, Zhang. Solving the Sampling Problem of the Sycamore Quantum Circuits. https://arxiv.org/html/2111.03011. As of 2021-11. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Paper.
  2. E1

    Kim experiment real; “utility before fault tolerance” for this Ising problem E4.

    Kim et al. Evidence for the utility of quantum computing before fault tolerance. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06096-3. As of 2023. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Paper (Nature OA).Tindall et al. Efficient tensor network simulation of IBM’s Eagle kicked Ising experiment. https://arxiv.org/html/2306.14887. As of 2024. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Paper (PRX Quantum).Begušić, Chan. Fast classical simulation of evidence for the utility of quantum computing before fault tolerance. https://arxiv.org/html/2306.16372. As of 2023-06. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Paper.
  3. E1

    Willow QEC paper = memory. Willow blog = RCS narrative. Not the same.

    Acharya et al. Quantum error correction below the surface code threshold. https://arxiv.org/html/2408.13687. As of 2024-12-09. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Paper (Nature 638).Neven / Willow Blog. Meet Willow, our state-of-the-art quantum chip. https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/research/google-willow-quantum-chip/. As of 2024-12-09. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Company blog.
  4. E1

    “Quantum computers break encryption” is false for the present in this log and unquantified for the future without 0.1% / 1 µs / ~10⁶ qubits.

    Gidney 2025. How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers with less than a million noisy qubits. https://arxiv.org/html/2505.15917. As of 2025-05. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Paper (resource estimate).NIST PQC. Announcing Approval of Three Federal Information Processing Standards (FIPS) for Post-Quantum Cryptography. https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2024/08/announcing-approval-three-federal-information-processing-standards-fips. As of 2024-08-13. Checked 2026-08-28. Type: Agency.
  5. E2

    An X post or IAI card art is not a warrant. “The universe is integer in units of Planck cubes” is not Palmer’s RaQM claim. The 400-qubit wall is a prediction, not a measurement. Gidney (~10⁶ noisy qubits) and Palmer Nmax (≤1000 perfect qubits) are different constructs.

    Palmer PNAS. Rational quantum mechanics: Testing quantum theory with quantum computers. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2523350123. As of 2026-03-16. Checked 2026-08-29. Type: Paper (PNAS; abstract via Crossref, body not opened).Oxford Physics News. Rational quantum mechanics: a new theory of quantum physics. https://www.physics.ox.ac.uk/news/rational-quantum-mechanics-new-theory-quantum-physics. As of 2026-03-16. Checked 2026-08-29. Type: University news (Palmer restatement).Palmer IAI. New theory argues quantum physics must abandon irrational numbers and the continuum. https://iai.tv/articles/new-theory-argues-quantum-physics-must-abandon-irrational-numbers-and-the-continuum-auid-3580. As of 2026-05-20. Checked 2026-08-29. Type: Magazine essay (lede; paywall).

8. Open questions

  1. Arute Nature 2019 main text — 200 s / 10,000-year wording in the original.
  2. Gidney+Ekerå 2021 full text (abstract only; arXiv HTML conversion error).
  3. Fowler et al. PRA 2012 surface-code overhead as primary.
  4. Shor 1994/1999, Grover 1996, Bennett-BBBV — foundations only via Preskill.
  5. NIST IR 8547 ipd body opened 2026-09-04 (source 24, E2 draft); FIPS 203/204/205 sources 21/22/23.
  6. Photonic supremacy (Jiuzhang, Xanadu) — deliberately not opened.
  7. Aharonov et al. 2023 noisy RCS in P.
  8. Willow RCS classical replication 2024–2026.
  9. Live inventory 2026: IBM Heron/Condor, IonQ Forte Enterprise, QuEra Apollo, Quantinuum H2.
  10. Economic utility (chemistry, materials, optimisation) with wall-clock gain vs. classical SOTA 2026.
  11. Palmer PNAS body (2026-08-29: publisher HTML was a JS shell); experimental test of Nmax on error-corrected qubits.
  12. Royal Society companion (Oxford news: in review) — not opened.
  13. Live inventory of error-corrected qubits 2026 — deliberately not invented.

9. Changes

  • v1.5-draft2026-09-05: EO 14412 FR PDF (source 25, govinfo 2026-12909) opened — federal PQC policy; HVA/high-impact KE 2030 / signatures 2031; NIST pilot 2027; FAR contractor 2030; definition via FIPS 203. Not: CRQC today; IR 8547 ipd remains E2 draft.
  • v1.4-draft2026-09-04: NIST IR 8547 ipd PDF body (source 24, DOI 10.6028/NIST.IR.8547.ipd) opened — NSM-10 2035; Table 2/4 deprecate after 2030 / disallow after 2035; draft status E2. Not: RSA broken today; not a final IR.
  • v1.3-draft2026-09-03: FIPS 204 and FIPS 205 PDF bodies (sources 22/23, DOI 10.6028/NIST.FIPS.204 and .205) opened — ML-DSA Table 2 sizes/categories; SLH-DSA 12 sets, example sizes, components not stand-alone. Approval still source 14; IR 8547 unopened.
  • v1.2-draft2026-09-02: FIPS 203 PDF body (source 21, DOI 10.6028/NIST.FIPS.203) opened — ML-KEM-512/768/1024 Table 3 sizes, default 768, K-PKE shall-not-standalone. Approval still source 14; FIPS 204/205 and IR 8547 unopened.
  • v1.1-draft2026-08-29: Palmer RaQM (PNAS 16 March 2026, Oxford news, IAI lede, arXiv:2602.16382 HTML) — alternative in layer 2, gravity-set cap in layer 3; not treated as established.
  • v1.0-draftFirst version from the 2026-08-28 verification log.

10. Sources

No. Source As of Checked Grade
1 Arute, F.; Arya, K.; Babbush, R.; et al. (Google AI Quantum). Supplementary information for “Quantum supremacy using a programmable superconducting processor”. https://arxiv.org/html/1910.11333. Type: SI to Nature paper. E1
2 Pednault, E.; Gunnels, J. A.; Nannicini, G.; Horesh, L.; Wisnieff, R.. Leveraging Secondary Storage to Simulate Deep 54-qubit Sycamore Circuits. https://arxiv.org/html/1910.09534. Type: Paper (IBM). E3
3 Pednault, E.; Maslov, D.; Gunnels, J.; Gambetta, J.. On “quantum supremacy”. https://www.ibm.com/quantum/blog/on-quantum-supremacy. Type: Company blog. E2
4 Pan, F.; Chen, K.; Zhang, P.. Solving the Sampling Problem of the Sycamore Quantum Circuits. https://arxiv.org/html/2111.03011. Type: Paper. E1
5 Kim, Y.; Eddins, A.; Anand, S.; Wei, K. X.; van den Berg, E.; Rosenblatt, S.; Nayfeh, H.; Wu, Y.; Zaletel, M.; Temme, K.; Kandala, A.. Evidence for the utility of quantum computing before fault tolerance. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06096-3. Type: Paper (Nature OA). E1
6 Tindall, J.; Fishman, M.; Stoudenmire, E. M.; Sels, D.. Efficient tensor network simulation of IBM’s Eagle kicked Ising experiment. https://arxiv.org/html/2306.14887. Type: Paper (PRX Quantum). E1
7 Begušić, T.; Chan, G. K.-L.. Fast classical simulation of evidence for the utility of quantum computing before fault tolerance. https://arxiv.org/html/2306.16372. Type: Paper. E1
8 Preskill, J.. Quantum Computing in the NISQ era and beyond. https://arxiv.org/html/1801.00862. Type: Review (Quantum 2, 79). E1
9 Google Quantum AI (Acharya, R.; et al.). Quantum error correction below the surface code threshold. https://arxiv.org/html/2408.13687. Type: Paper (Nature 638). E1
10 Bluvstein, D.; Evered, S. J.; Geim, A. A.; Li, S. H.; Zhou, H.; Manovitz, T.; et al.. Logical quantum processor based on reconfigurable atom arrays. https://arxiv.org/html/2312.03982. Type: Paper (Nature 626). E1
11 Chen, J.-S.; Nielsen, E.; Ebert, M.; Inlek, I. V.; Wright, K.; et al.. Benchmarking a trapped-ion quantum computer with 30 qubits. https://arxiv.org/html/2308.05071. Type: Paper (vendor+coauthors). E2
12 Kjaergaard, M.; Schwartz, M. E.; Braumüller, J.; Krantz, P.; Wang, J. I.-J.; Gustavsson, S.; Oliver, W. D.. Superconducting Qubits: Current State of Play. https://arxiv.org/html/1905.13641. Type: Review. E1
13 Gidney, C.. How to factor 2048 bit RSA integers with less than a million noisy qubits. https://arxiv.org/html/2505.15917. Type: Paper (resource estimate). E3
14 NIST. Announcing Approval of Three Federal Information Processing Standards (FIPS) for Post-Quantum Cryptography. https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2024/08/announcing-approval-three-federal-information-processing-standards-fips. Type: Agency. E1
15 Gao, X.; Kalinowski, M.; Chou, C.-N.; Lukin, M. D.; Barak, B.; Choi, S.. Limitations of Linear Cross-Entropy as a Measure for Quantum Advantage. https://arxiv.org/html/2112.01657. Type: Paper. E1
16 Neven, H. (Google Quantum AI). Meet Willow, our state-of-the-art quantum chip. https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/research/google-willow-quantum-chip/. Type: Company blog. E3
17 Palmer, T.. Rational quantum mechanics: Testing quantum theory with quantum computers. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2523350123. Type: Paper (PNAS; abstract via Crossref, body not opened). E2
18 University of Oxford, Department of Physics. Rational quantum mechanics: a new theory of quantum physics. https://www.physics.ox.ac.uk/news/rational-quantum-mechanics-new-theory-quantum-physics. Type: University news (Palmer restatement). E2
19 Palmer, T.. New theory argues quantum physics must abandon irrational numbers and the continuum. https://iai.tv/articles/new-theory-argues-quantum-physics-must-abandon-irrational-numbers-and-the-continuum-auid-3580. Type: Magazine essay (lede; paywall). E2
20 Palmer, T.. Solving the Mysteries of Quantum Mechanics: Why Nature Abhors a Continuum. https://arxiv.org/html/2602.16382. Type: Paper (arXiv HTML, companion). E2
21 NIST. Module-Lattice-Based Key-Encapsulation Mechanism Standard (FIPS 203). https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.FIPS.203. Type: FIPS PDF (body opened; also nvlpubs.nist.gov). E1
22 NIST. Module-Lattice-Based Digital Signature Standard (FIPS 204). https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.FIPS.204. Type: FIPS PDF (body opened; also nvlpubs.nist.gov). E1
23 NIST. Stateless Hash-Based Digital Signature Standard (FIPS 205). https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.FIPS.205. Type: FIPS PDF (body opened; also nvlpubs.nist.gov). E1
24 Moody, D.; Perlner, R.; Regenscheid, A.; Robinson, A.; Cooper, D. (NIST). Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards (NIST IR 8547 Initial Public Draft). https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.IR.8547.ipd. Type: NIST IR PDF (Initial Public Draft; body opened). E2
25 Executive Office of the President. Securing the Nation Against Advanced Cryptographic Attacks (Executive Order 14412). https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-06-25/pdf/2026-12909.pdf. Type: Presidential Executive Order (FR PDF opened). E1

11. Uncertainty log

Overall uncertainty of this entry, bound to the verification log of 2026-08-28 plus Palmer RaQM 2026-08-29, the FIPS 203/204/205 bodies 2026-09-02/03 and IR 8547 ipd 2026-09-04 and EO 14412 2026-09-05. 17 full-text openings from the log, plus Oxford news, IAI lede, arXiv:2602.16382 HTML, the PNAS abstract via Crossref (PNAS body: JS shell), and FIPS 203/204/205 PDFs (E1; three further openings). Not used as warrant: Wikipedia, journalism, Willow spec-sheet PDF, “10 septillion years”, Elon/X, IAI card art, Planck cubes.

  • Established (layer 1): NISQ construct; Sycamore SI, Eagle experiment, Forte, Bluvstein, Willow QEC memory; transmon cooling; NIST PQC approval (14) FIPS 203/204/205 bodies (21/22/23) IR 8547 ipd (24: deprecate/disallow timelines, draft) and EO 14412 (25: federal migration deadlines). RaQM not here.
  • Claimed (layer 2): 200 s vs. 10,000 years; Willow 10²⁵; Gidney <1 million qubits; Kim utility framing; Palmer RaQM as alternative and Nmax prediction (E2 publication / E3 physics).
  • Constrained (layer 3): Pan/Gao/Tindall/Begušić counter-evidence; memory ≠ algorithm; RSA not broken; Grover quadratic; RaQM information cap as a claimed, not measured, limit against unlimited advantage.

Not opened (not a warrant)

  • Arute et al. Nature 574 main text — timeout. Figures only from SI + IBM blog.
  • Gidney, Ekerå 2021 full text — conversion error; abstract only.
  • Wurtz et al. Aquila HTML — 404. 256-qubit analog remains abstract (E0/E3).
  • Google 2023 surface-code Nature 614 — 404 on the tested URL.
  • Shor, Grover, Bennett-BBBV, Fowler 2012, DiVincenzo 2000 — not opened.
  • NIST IR 8547 final (ipd body opened 2026-09-04 as source 24, E2 draft). EO 14412 opened 2026-09-05 (source 25, E1 policy).
  • Jiuzhang, Xanadu photonic sampling.
  • Aharonov et al. 2023 — citation in Tindall only.
  • Willow spec sheet PDF; IBM Condor/Heron specs 2024–2026.
  • Gidney+Ekerå 20-million-qubit abstract: PARTIAL, E3.
  • Palmer PNAS body — publisher HTML 2026-08-29 was a JS shell; figures from abstract (Crossref) + Oxford news.
  • Royal Society companion (Oxford news: in review).
  • Elon/X post and IAI card art — deliberately not a warrant.
  • 2026 hardware SOTA of error-corrected qubits — not invented.